2050 Pathways Explorer ili kako do klimatske neutralnosti u Hrvatskoj?
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2050 Pathways Explorer ili kako do klimatske neutralnosti u Hrvatskoj?
English version of the text follows below!
Znamo, ili bi trebali znati, da je Zeleni plan Europske Unije zapravo plan za postizanje ambicije europske politike prema prvom klimatski neutralnom kontinentu do 2050. godine. Zašto to?
Zbog toga što je to način kako se nositi kao društvo, gospodarstvo i kao lokalna zajednica, grad ili kvart sa svim međusobno povezanim licima i naličjima kriza koje živimo. Posljednjih godina krize se stapaju i izmjenjuju kao na pokretnoj traci, a biti klimatski neutralan znači predvidjeti kako izbjeći štete i šokove i zaštiti se od velikog porasta cijena energenata, od nedostupnih izvora zbog ratnih sukoba ili prekinutih dobavnih lanaca. Kako se zaštititi od nestašice vode i suša, od uništenih uroda na poljima, u vrtovima i vinogradima ili od ekstremno vrućih ljeta u gradu, od preskupe struje ili ispadanja elektrodistribucijske mreže zbog pojačane potrošnje na klimatizaciju.
Znamo da je preventivno djelovanje jeftinije od saniranja šteta i ovdje se radi upravo o tome, ali i o opstanku, budući da idemo prema više od 3 stupnja toplijem svijetu do kraja stoljeća u kojem neće biti ugodno živjeti. Stoga nam je potrebna prilagodba i jačanje otpornosti koje ide planski, sustavno i na srednji do dugi rok uz agilno prilagođavanje stalnim promjenama okolnosti. Naravno da to nije jednostavno, baš zato što je sve povezano, niti će se promjena dogoditi preko noći, ali moguće je!
Postizanje klimatske neutralnosti u Hrvatskoj do 2050. godine je tehnički izvedivo, premda izazovno i zahtijeva sistemske promjene.
Ambicija EU-a u pogledu klimatske neutralnosti do 2050. postavila je novi kontekst politike koji bi svi napori u planiranju i razvoju trebali uzeti u obzir. 2050 Pathways Explorer je model koji nam transparentno daje veliku sliku i omogućuje međusektorsku procjene mogućih putanja prema klimatski neutralnom gospodarstvu u Hrvatskoj do 2050. godine. Pathways Explorer pomaže nam razmišljati i zajedno planirati kako i na koji način bi mogli dostići taj cilj pa zatim i djelovati svi u istom smjeru, bez da jedni drugima poništavamo trud.
Model sagledava i analizira ključne hrvatske sektore – proizvodnju energije, zgrade, industriju, promet, poljoprivredu, šumarstvo i korištenje zemljišta (AFOLU) te po prvi puta kvantificira i promjene u životnim navikama. Cilj modela je doprinijeti transformaciji Hrvatske u sljedećih 30 godina te omogućiti argumentiranu raspravu između sektora i kreatora javnih politika temeljem jasno iskazanih različitih modela dostizanja cilja klimatske neutralnosti u procesu donošenja odluka.
Prednost 2050 pathways explorer modela je što omogućava cjelovito razumijevanje energetskog i gospodarskog sustava i njegove dinamike – prikazuje emisije stakleničkih plinova, njihove izvore i društveno-ekonomske učinke te potrebna ulaganja odnosno troškove. S druge strane, alat nudi robusnu analitičku bazu podataka koja omogućuje korisniku da detaljno samostalno istraži različite scenarije. Model ne služi prognoziranju puteva postizanja klimatske neutralnosti niti ne nudi optimizaciju troškova.
Tko ga je izradio?
U izradi modela i scenarija sudjelovao je tim stručnjaka Fakulteta elektrotehnike i računarstva Sveučilišta u Zagrebu (FER), SDEWES Centra i tvrtke URBANICA, uz vodstvo tima organizacije CLIMACT i svima je javno dostupan na poveznici ovdje.
Za Republiku Hrvatsku izrađeno je šest različitih scenarija
Temelj za sve scenarije su službene baze podataka. Tri službena scenarija izrađena su prema ciljevima i podacima kako je to u dokumentima usvojenim na nacionalnoj razini; a izrađena su i još tri moguća scenarija za postizanje neto-nulte stope emisija ugljika do 2050:
- REF ili scenarij s postojećim mjerama(WEM) iz Strategije niskougljičnog razvoja[1] (NUS) te kako je podnesen Europskoj agenciji za okoliš (EGP) u skladu s projekcijama za 2021.g.
- NECP ili scenarij s dodatnim mjerama (WAM), koji se navodi i u Hrvatskom Integriranom nacionalnom energetskom i klimatskom planu (NECP)[2] i kako je podnesen EGP-u u skladu s projekcijama za 2021.g.
- NZ ili klimatski neutralan scenarij a koji odgovara predstavljenom scenariju za postizanje klimatske neutralnosti do 2050.g.
- S-NECP ili revidirani NECP s povećanom ambicijom, izrađen sa ciljem da odrazi ciljeve Zelenog plana EU i plana ubrzane dekarbonizacije RePowerEU potaknutog ratnim sukobom u Ukrajini.
- B-NZ ili neto-nula scenarij koji se postiže s fokusom na promjene u ponašanju (behaviour net zero)
- T-NZ ili neto-nula scenarij koji se postiže s fokusom na tehnološke promjene (technology net zero)
Mjere potrebne za postizanje klimatske neutralnosti opisane su detaljno u kategorijama sektora, podsektora i polugama integriranim u Pathways Explorer, a ovo su ključne poruke modela koje su ujedno i podloge za naš daljnji zajednički rad na izgradnji kapaciteta lokalnih partnera, sukreaciju javnih politika kao i zagovaranje budući da slijedi revizija NECP-a i priprema akcijskog plana za provedbu NUS-a. Izvještaj s detaljnim opisom mjera po sektorima pronaći ćete na kraju ovog teksta, na engleskom jeziku.
- Postizanje klimatske neutralnosti u Hrvatskoj je tehnički izvedivo do 2050. godine. Na raspolaganju je raspon različitih politika koje podrazumijevaju različite moguće putanje. Trenutačni službeni nacionalni referentni scenarij (s postojećim mjerama) i scenarij s dodatnim mjerama nisu na putu klimatske neutralnosti.
- Najteže je smanjiti emisije sektora industrije i poljoprivrede. Zgrade, promet i elektroenergetski sektor mogli bi biti gotovo u potpunosti dekarbonizirani do 2050. Preostale emisije mogu se poništiti sekvestracijom stakleničkih plinova u okviru sektora korištenja zemljišta te tehnologijama hvatanja, uporabe i skladištenja ugljika.
- Promjene životnih stilova mogu biti ključne za troškovno učinkovito smanjenje potražnje za energijom.
- Fosilna goriva u konačnoj potražnji za energijom moraju se postupno ukidati i kompenzirati izvorima energije bez ugljika ili ugljično neutralnim izvorima energije. Preostala fosilna goriva pretežno se koriste u industriji i kandidati su za tehnologije hvatanja, uporabe i skladištenja ugljika (Carbon Capture Use and Storage, CCUS).
- Dekarbonizacija zahtijeva niskougljična ulaganja u infrastrukturu u svim sektorima. Ukupni kapitalni troškovi mogu se znatno smanjiti ukoliko se smanji potražnja za povezanim energetskim uslugama zbog promjena u ponašanju i polugama kružnog gospodarstva. Smanjenje troškova goriva kompenzira povećanje kapitalnih izdataka. Razine cijena i potrošnje vodika i e-goriva tada postaju važna odrednica ukupnog računa za energiju.
Pitate se koliko sve to košta i možemo li si mi to priuštiti?
Odgovor je – možemo i moramo, tako (p)ostajemo otporniji, konkurentniji i energetski neovisniji, a učinke na povećanu kvalitetu stanovanja i zdravlje ljudi tek trebamo procijeniti i izmjeriti. Iznos potrebnih ulaganja u transformaciju prema klimatski neutralnom društvu niži je od iznosa ulaganja u društvo koje to nije i definitivno je tranzicija prema klimatski neutralnom društvu i gospodarstvu dobar „posao“ za sve. [3] Možda bi ispravnije bilo reći poziv nego posao?
- [1] https://mingor.gov.hr/o-ministarstvu-1065/djelokrug/uprava-za-klimatske-aktivnosti-1879/strategije-planovi-i-programi-1915/strategija-niskougljicnog-razvoja-hrvatske/1930
- [2] https://mingor.gov.hr/UserDocsImages/UPRAVA%20ZA%20ENERGETIKU/Strategije,%20planovi%20i%20programi/hr%20necp/Integrirani%20nacionalni%20energetski%20i%20klimatski%20plan%20Republike%20Hrvatske%20%20_final.pdf
- [3] The total costs of the system from the final energy perspective are shown in Figure 3-6 and sectoral in Figure 3-7. The costs include energy system only costs that add up across different sectors and by different actors (households, private actors, governments). In the final energy perspective, the energy costs of the demand sectors cover the final energy demand, the energy costs of the supply sector covers the energy losses. Energy exports are associated with a negative price. Modelled scenarios show that energy transition is economically feasible, and savings can compensate for additional investments needed (compared to WEM scenario). The B-NZ scenario show the lowest cost due to the fact that behavioural change does not need an material investment (any promotional or educational costs are not included).
2050 Emission Pathways model omogućilo je financiranje darovnicom European Climate Foundation #G-2102-61673
2050 Pathways Explorer or how to achieve climate neutrality in Croatia?
Most of us do know that the European Union’s Green Deal is a plan to achieve policy ambition towards the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Why is that?
For us as a society, economy or local community, it is a way to deal with all the interconnected faces of crises we are living through. We know that preventive action is cheaper than repairing damage. Climate change adaptation and resilience have to be planned and created systemically with medium to long term outlook, with agile adaptation to constant changes in circumstances. It’s not simple because everything is connected, nor the change will happen overnight, but it’s possible!
Achieving climate neutrality in Croatia by 2050 is technically feasible, although challenging and requires systemic changes.
The EU’s climate neutrality by 2050 ambition has set a new policy context that should be taken into account when planning any development. 2050 Pathways Explorer is a model that transparently presents the big picture and allows cross-sectoral assessments of possible paths towards a climate-neutral economy in Croatia. Pathways Explorer helps us think and plan together how we could reach this goal and to act in the same direction, without voiding each other’s efforts.
The model looks at and analyzes key Croatian sectors – energy production, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) and for the first time quantitates changes in lifestyle habits. The aim is to contribute to the transformation of Croatia in the next 30 years and to enable an argumentative debate between sectors and policy makers based on different models.
The advantage of the 2050 pathways explorer model is that it provides a comprehensive understanding of the energy and economic system and its dynamics – it shows greenhouse gas emissions, their sources and socio-economic effects, as well as the necessary investments or costs. On the other hand, the tool offers a robust analytical database that allows the user to explore different scenarios in detail on their own. The model does not serve to forecast pathways to achieve climate neutrality nor does it offer cost optimization.
Who made it?
A team of experts from the Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing of the University of Zagreb (FER), SDEWES Center and URBANICA participated in the development of models and scenarios, led by the CLIMACT team. It is available to everyone at the link here.
Six different scenarios have been developed for the Republic of Croatia
All scenarios used the official databases. The three official scenarios were drafted according to the objectives and data as it is in documents adopted at national level; and three other possible scenarios have been developed to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050:
- REF or scenario with existing measures (WEM) of the Low Carbon Development[1] Strategy (UXO) and as submitted to the European Environment Agency (EEA) in line with projections for 2021.
- NECP or scenario with additional measures (WAM), which is also outlined in the Croatian Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP)[2] and as submitted to the EEA in line with projections for 2021. mr.
- NZ or climate neutral scenario that corresponds to the presented scenario for achieving climate neutrality by 2050
- S-NECP or revised NECP with increased ambition, designed withthe aim of reflecting the objectives of the EU Green Deal and the RePowerEU accelerated decarbonisation plan driven by the war conflict in Ukraine.
- B-NZ or net-zero scenario achieved with a focus on behavioral changes (behaviour net zero)
- T-NZ or net-zero scenario achieved with a focus on technological change (technology net zero)
The measures needed to achieve climate neutrality are described in detail in the sector categories, subsectors and levers integrated into Pathways Explorer. These are the key messages of the model, which are also the basis for our further joint work on building the capacity of local partners, co-creation of public policies and advocacy during the process of the NECP revision.
1. Achieving climate neutrality in Croatia is technically feasible by 2050. There is a range of different policies available that entail different possible trajectories. The current official national reference scenario (with existing measures) and the scenario with additional measures are not on the path of climate neutrality.
2. The most difficult thing is to reduce emissions of the industry and agriculture sectors. Buildings, transport and the electricity sector could be almost completely decarbonised by 2050. The remaining emissions can be reversed through the sequestration of greenhouse gases within the land use sector and carbon capture, use and storage technologies.
3. Lifestyle changes can be key to cost-effectively reducing energy demand.
4. Fossil fuels in final energy demand must be phased out and compensated by carbon-neutral or carbon-neutral energy sources. The remaining fossil fuels are predominantly used in industry and are candidates for Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS) technologies.
5. Decarbonisation requires low-carbon investment in infrastructure in all sectors. Total capital costs can be significantly reduced if demand for related energy services is reduced due to changes in the behaviour and levers of the circular economy. Reducing fuel costs compensates for the increase in capital expenditures. Prices and consumption levels of hydrogen and e-fuels then become an important determinant of the total energy bill.
Wonder how much it costs and can we afford it?
The answer is – yes we can and we must. In that way we remain more resilient, competitive and energy independent. There are additional benefits on increased housing quality and human health, which have yet to be assessed and measured. The amount of investment needed to transform towards a climate-neutral society is lower than the amount of investment in a society that is not climate neutral. The transition towards a climate-neutral society and economy is definitely a good “business” for everyone.[3]
The 2050 Emission Pathways model enabled funding with the European Climate Foundation grant #G-2102-61673
[1] https://mingor.gov.hr/o-ministarstvu-1065/djelokrug/uprava-za-klimatske-aktivnosti-1879/strategije-planovi-i-programi-1915/strategija-niskougljicnog-razvoja-hrvatske/1930
[2] https://mingor.gov.hr/UserDocsImages/UPRAVA%20ZA%20ENERGETIKU/Strategije,%20planovi%20i%20programi/hr%20necp/Integrirani%20nacionalni%20energetski%20i%20klimatski%20plan%20Republike%20Hrvatske%20%20_final.pdf
[3] The total costs of the system from the final energy perspective are shown in Figure 3-6 and sectoral in Figure 3-7. The costs include energy system only costs that add up across different sectors and by different actors (households, private actors, governments). In the final energy perspective, the energy costs of the demand sectors cover the final energy demand, the energy costs of the supply sector covers the energy losses. Energy exports are associated with a negative price. Modelled scenarios show that energy transition is economically feasible, and savings can compensate for additional investments needed (compared to WEM scenario). The B-NZ script show the lowest cost due to the fact that behavioural change does not need an material investment (any promotional or educational costs are not included).